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Housing production is one of the most profound challenges facing Massachusetts, and one in which each city and town has a unique and important role to play. Creating enough homes to accommodate the next generation of workers while also addressing the complex needs of an aging and increasingly diverse population will require cities and towns across the state to implement new plans and policies that usher in a new era of housing production.

The high cost of housing and lack of affordable or attractive options for many households has many negative consequences that affect the whole state. Housing costs are a major contributor to the state’s notoriously high cost of living, and eclipse taxes as a major disincentive to firms and talented workers thinking of locating here. Paying an excessive amount of income on housing means families have less money to spend on other essentials like food or health care, and spend less money at local businesses. Finally, high housing costs, especially in and near urban areas, have caused many households to search farther afield, “driving until they qualify” in the sprawl frontier past I-495 where large lots, low density, and long commutes cause local environmental damage, increased emissions, and higher transportation costs.

One fundamental solution to the state’s housing challenge is more proactive efforts to plan for increased housing production at the local level. Each city and town has different needs, different constraints, and different opportunities for new growth, but all can play a role in meeting the state’s housing needs. Furthermore, many important principles of housing production apply across the Commonwealth: communities need a diversity of housing types to meet future housing needs; increased production at all price levels is critical to improving affordability; and well-located and well-designed new housing can revitalize local business districts while reducing auto miles travelled.

This report provides an overview of the current demographics of Methuen, the existing housing stock, projected changes in housing demand over the coming decades, and the types of new housing that are needed to meet that need.

The Legal Context for Housing Production Planning

Housing production has been an important goal of the Commonwealth for decades. The Comprehensive Permit Act consists of Massachusetts General Laws (MGL) Chapter 40B, Sections 20 through 23, along with associated regulations issued and administered by the Massachusetts Department of Housing and Community Development (DHCD). It was enacted in 1969 to encourage the production of affordable housing in all the cities and towns of the Commonwealth.

In municipalities that fail to meet their affordable housing obligations under Chapter 40B, a developer can apply for a “Comprehensive Permit” that enables them to build more densely than municipal zoning bylaws would permit, if at least 25% (or 20% in certain cases) of the new units are affordable. For purposes of comprehensive permitting, “adequate progress” means that more than 10% of the year-round housing units qualify as affordable in the Subsidized Housing Inventory (see more detail below), or that the municipality has an approved housing production plan and has met annual or biennial housing production targets. In some cases, as-of-right zoning for multi-family or higher-density housing can help demonstrate “adequate progress.” Despite its controversy, Massachusetts voters rejected an initiative petition to repeal the law in November of 2010.

For the purposes of this statute, affordable housing is defined as a unit that could be purchased or rented by a household making up to 80% of the area median income (AMI).

Housing needs and preferences change over time. Young professionals and seniors on fixed incomes may prefer smaller, more affordable units that are easier to maintain. Families with children may want larger units with more bedrooms and open space. This section describes the population of Methuen by age and how it is projected to change.

Methuen is home to 47000 residents, an increase of 6.8 percent from 2000. In 2010, working-age adults between 20 and 65 made up 60 percent of the population and seniors over 65 made up 14 percent School-age children, between 5 and 19, make up 20 percent of current residents. Between 2005 and 2012, school enrollment decreased by 390, or 5.2 percent

The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), the regional planning agency for Metro Boston, has prepared population and housing demand projections for 164 cities and towns in Metropolitan Boston 1 , and the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute has prepared population projections for the balance of the cities and towns in the state. 2 Both sets of projections include two scenarios: a Status Quo scenario based on continuation of recent trends in migration, housing occupancy, and location preference; and a Stronger Region scenario that assumes increased attraction and retention of young workers and slightly increased preference for urban settings and multi-family housing. The Status Quo scenario found that continuation of current levels of in-migration and housing production would lead to a declining workforce and economic stagnation over the coming decades. In contrast, the increased migration rates of the Stronger Region scenario could fuel job growth of 7% between 2010 and 2040. As a result, MAPC recommends use of the Stronger Region scenario as the basis for housing planning, and the assumptions and outputs of that work have been incorporated into the Commonwealth’s multi-family housing production goal of 10,000 multi-family units per year, and have been adopted by the Massachusetts Department of Transportation as the basis for long-term transportation planning.

With the aging of the Baby Boomers, Massachusetts is growing older. The senior population is expected to increase by 100 percent over the next two decades, an increase mirrored in almost every city and town.

In Methuen, the aging of the Baby Boomers will cause the senior population to increase by 6,500 people, or 100 percent, through 2030, as seen in Figure 1. The total population is projected to increase by 11,000, or 23 percent, over the same period.

Figure 1. Population by Age Group, 2000-2030.

Population

By Race

Massachusetts has grown more diverse since 2000. Between 2000 and 2010, the non-white population increased by 94 percent. Meanwhile, the white, non-Hispanic population decreased by 7.9 percent.

Housing demand is a function not only of population, but also the number and type of households that the population forms. As years pass, some households form, move into the community, or grow larger, while others grow smaller, seek different housing options, or move out. Net housing demand is the number of units needed to accommodate additional households and maintain healthy vacancy rates among owner and renter-occupied housing units. 3 This section looks at the current distribution of household types in Methuen, projected household changes, and net housing unit demand through 2030.

Key findings:

• total households in Methuen increased by 5.9 percent between 2000 and 2010, from 17000 to 18000; 4
• average household size increased from 2.62 in 2000 to 2.67 in 2010, and is projected to be 2.46 by 2030;
• family households with children make up 32% of Methuen households;
• single person households and elderly 5 single person households make up 25% and 11% of Methuen households, respectively;
• total households in Methuen are projected to increase by 5,000 through 2030, an increase of 28 percent from 2010;
• householders between 30 and 60 are projected to increase by 1,000, or 9.1 percent;

• as the Baby Boomer generation ages, the number of householders over 60 will increase by 4,500, from 31 percent to 43 percent of the total households in Methuen;
• net housing unit demand will be 2800 through 2020, or 280 annually;
• net housing unit demand for householders currently between the ages of 15 and 35 will be 3000, or 300 annually; and
• over the next ten years, householders currently older than 55 will need 1,700 fewer units than they do today , putting 150 single family houses back onto the market on average each year.

Households

Total Households

Total population and average household size determine the number of households in a community. In Massachusetts overall, and in 96% of Massachusetts municipalities with population growth since 2000, the number of households increased faster than population because of declines in average household size. This trend is expected to continue as seniors make up a greater share of householders and younger householders wait longer to form families that are smaller on average than their predecessors.

Despite these overall trends, household size did increase in 48 Massachusetts municipalities between 2000 and 2010. Several factors may contribute to this, including “doubling up” in the face of rising housing costs, and concentrations of certain demographic groups with higher fertility rates.

In Methuen, total households increased by 1,000, or 5.9 percent, between 2000 and 2010. At the same time, average household size increased from 2.62 to 2.67.

Households by Age Cohort

Just as aging Baby Boomers (those born between 1945 and 1970, for our purposes) will dominate the overall population dynamics of the state, they will also have a substantial influence on household changes and housing needs in Methuen. As this large generation ages, it will increase the number of householders over 60 by 82 percent statewide through 2030, and their share of all households will increase from 31 to 43 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, the total number of householders under 60 will change only slightly from one decade to the next, and most age groups under 60 will see a decline in the number of households between 2010 and 2030.

In Methuen, householders over 60 will decrease from 31 percent of the population in 2010 to 43 percent in 2030, an increase of 82 percent. Meanwhile, under-60 householders will increase by 1,000, or 8.3 percent, as seen in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Households by Householder Age Cohort, 2010-2030.

Housing Units

Housing Unit Demand Change

Changes in housing unit demand result from household formation, dissolution, and mortality. Young adults currently between the ages of 15 and 30 are poised to form households after they leave home, dorm, or roommates. Thousands are projected to do so each year, and each will need a housing unit, typically multi-family rental units. Meanwhile, older adults have typically already formed households. Combined with mortality, outmigration, or transition to nursing homes and other group quarter situations, this translates to a decline in housing unit demand among householders 55 and over, despite a sharp increase in the number of senior-headed households.

The decline in demand from older householders will partly offset increased demand from their younger counterparts. In Metro Boston, for example, the decline in demand for single-family homes among householders over 55 and over will accommodate 50 percent of demand for such units from younger households between 2010 and 2020, and an even greater share in the decade thereafter. However, shifts in preferences among younger households towards multi-family units means that only 15 percent of new multi-family demand will be met through existing units freed up by householder over 55.

Through 2020, new households headed by someone currently under the age of 35 will need an additional 3000 housing units. Households headed by someone currently between the ages of 35 and 55 will demand 1,500 more units. Householders currently over the age of 55 will need 1,700 fewer units than they do today. After accounting for the units freed up by departing seniors and the units needed to maintain a healthy vacancy rate, this translates into net demand for 1600 single family and 1200 multi-family units. Figure 3 breaks projected demand down by householder cohort, unit type, and tenure.

Figure 3. Projected Household Demand by Age Cohort, Unit Type, and Tenure.

Supply

Supply is measured by the number and type of housing units in a municipality. It is the part of the housing market that municipalities can directly control through zoning and other land use policies. In this section, we look at the current supply of housing units in Methuen, as well as its distribution by unit type, building age, size, and cost. We also look at housing permits in Methuen since 2000 and compare it to projected future demand. These numbers can help your municipality to determine what policies are needed to ensure an adequate supply of housing to meet current and future demand.

Housing Units by Age

The distribution of housing units by age is important for at least three reasons. First, a housing stock with few units built since 2000 indicates that housing supply is growing slowly. If demand is expected to remain stable or increase in the future, this may result in upward pressure on housing prices. Second, older housing units can be more expensive to occupy, due to higher heating and maintenance costs. Third, certain federal housing programs, such as Community Development Block Grants, track the percent of housing units by age, and in particular the percent built before 1939.

In Methuen, 25% of housing units are in buildings built before 1939, compared to 25% statewide. Another 18% and 23% of Methuen units are in buildings that date from 1940-1959 and 1960-1979, respectively. Construction since 2000 accounts for 7.1% of units, compared to 9% statewide.

Housing Units by Type

Housing preferences are projected to change, as both younger householders and seniors opt for smaller, multi-family units, as seen above. It is important to compare these projections to the current distribution of units in order to calibrate supply to future demand. In Methuen, 66% of units are in single family homes, compared to 76% statewide and 50% for Regional Urban Center-type municipalities; 16% of all units are in two- to four-family buildings; and 17.3% are in multi-family buildings with five or more units. The remainder are in non-permanent structures, such as mobile homes.

Housing Permits 2000 - 2012

One way to measure whether or not a municipality is on track to meet future demand is to compare recent permitting activity to future projected demand. If annual permitting for single or multi-family housing units is historically lower than projected annual demand, this indicates a need to increase the rate of single or multi-family permitting in the future. 6 From 2000 to 2012, Methuen permitted 98 single family and 15 multi-family housing units annually. By comparison, Methuen faces an annual projected demand of 160 single family units and 120 multi-family units.

Housing prices are determined by the demand for and supply of housing units. If supply does not keep up with demand, higher prices result. Affordability is determined by the distribution of housing prices and household incomes. If prices rise but incomes remain flat - a familiar dynamic in many communities in recent years - affordability declines.

Affordability is measured in several ways. In this section, we will measure affordability according to:

• the percent of households that pay more than 30% and 50% of income on housing costs (“cost burdened” and “severely cost burdened,” respectively), by household tenure, income, and type;
• the percent of housing units listed on the Massachusetts Subsidized Housing Inventory (SHI);
• the percent of recent home sales affordable to low and median income households; and
• the gap between the number of households by income level, and the number of housing units affordable by income level.

Households by Income

Affordability is of particular concern to low income households. Many federal and state housing programs define low income households according to household size and household income, measured as a percent of Area Median Income (AMI). The breakdown for extremely low, very low, and low income households by household size is shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1. Low income households in Methuen by household income and household size.

In Methuen, 14%, 12%, and 14% of households are extremely low, very low, and low income, respectively. This means that 40 percent of all households qualify for federal and state affordable housing programs based on household income.

Housing Cost Burden

The most common measure of housing affordability is the percent of income that households spend on housing costs. According to most federal and state agencies, households that spend more than 30% of income on housing costs are “cost burdened.” Households that spend more than 50% of income on housing are “severely cost burdened.” Areas where more than 30% of households are cost burdened face an affordable housing shortage. In Methuen, 38 percent and 15 percent of households are cost burdened and severely cost burdened, respectively, compared to 29 percent and 14 percent of households statewide.

Cost Burden by Tenure

Cost burden rates are typically higher among renter households. Statewide, 47% of renter and 31% of owners are cost burdened, respectively. In Methuen, 50% of renters are cost burdened, versus 32% of owners.

Cost Burden by Income

As expected, cost burden is also more common among low income households. Statewide, 81% of all extremely low income households, 67% of very low income households, and 49% of low income households are cost burdened, versus 14% of households with incomes above 100% AMI. Figure 4 shows the percent of Methuen households that are cost burdened and severely cost burdened by income level.

Figure 4. Percent of households in Methuen cost burdened by income level.

Cost Burden by Household Type

Younger households, non-family households, and elderly households typically have lower incomes, and are more likely to rent. They are also more likely to to be cost burdened. Statewide, 25% of elderly family households and 52% of non-elderly, non-family households are cost burdened, respectively. As the number of elderly households increases, the number of cost-burdened elderly households is likely to increase. In Methuen, cost burden among elderly family households and non-elderly, non-family households is 25% and 52%, respectively.

Subsidized Housing Inventory

Massachusetts maintains a subsidized housing inventory (SHI) that tracks each municipality’s affordable housing stock, including deed restricted and subsidized units. Under General Law Chapter 40B, in any municipality where less than 10% of units are included on the SHI, a developer can build more densely than the municipal zoning bylaws would permit, if at least 25% (or 20% in certain cases) of the new units are affordable.

Statewide, 5% of housing units are on the SHI, and 12 percent of municipalities meet their 10% requirement under Chapter 40B. Figure 5 shows the percent of SHI unit within Methuen and its nearest neighbors.

Figure 5. Percent SHI units for Methuen and nearest neighboring municipalities.

Affordability of Recent Home Sales

Owner-occupied cost burden estimates reflect the housing costs of current owner households, not the prices that aspiring homeowners face in the current housing market. If prices have risen recently, new entrants my find themselves with fewer options of higher risk of cost burden than their counterparts who have been in the area for some time. To estimate how affordable recent sale prices are to low income families, we use 2000 to 2012 sales data from the Massachusetts parcel file Figure 6 shows the percent of single family home sales since 2000 that are affordable by household income.

Note: (If a graph does not appear below, then there is no data on sale price or sale date for Methuen in the Massachusetts parcel data, or the data is in a non-standard format.)

Figure 6. Percent of Single Family Home Sales, Affordable by Household Income (2000-present)

Affordability Gap

Units that are affordable to low income households are not necessarily occupied by low income households. This mismatch between households’ incomes and the units they occupy can exacerbate affordability problems. To measure the extent to which affordability is a supply problem versus a distribution problem, we calculate the affordability gap. The gap is the difference between the number of households at a given income level and the number of units affordable to households at that income level. A positive gap indicates a shortage of units at a given income level, even if households and units were perfectly matched by incomes and costs. Methuen households at less than 50% AMI, 50 to 80% AMI, and above 80% AMI, face affordability gaps of 1600, -610, and -1000, respectively.

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ACT

MLS Number 72923199

• Multi-Family 2 Family - 2 Units Up/Down
• Total Parking Spaces3
• Bedrooms6
• Bathroom2
• Units2

GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! Or make it your OWNER OCCUPIED home and get help with your mortgage. This solid two-family is close to everything. One block away away from downtown Turners Falls, shopping, restaurants and moments to highway access. Great opportunity for families that want to live together. Spacious first floor features 2/3 bedrooms, eat in kitchen, in-unit laundry, living room and bath. Second floor features 3 bedrooms, eat-in kitchen, in-unit laundry, living room and bath. Walk up attic. Separate Utilities! Efficient gas heat. Newer gas water heaters leased from Berkshire Gas. Off street parking. SOLD IN AS IN CONDITION

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ACT

MLS Number 72923173

• Multi-Family 3 Family - 3 Units Up/Down
• Total Parking Spaces4
• Bathroom3
• Units3
• Full Bath3

Don't miss out this three family house with two large-spacious apartments and one two bedroom apartment, separate utilities, 4 plus parking space and rear back yard. The first floor and second floor apartment are large units with additional rooms. Apt #1 Has 3 bedrooms and Apt #2 has 4 bedrooms. Three separate gas baseboard heating systems and electric breaker panels, vinyl siding, vinyl windows, 4 plus parking space and fenced yard. Conveniently located near public transportation, train station, shopping and easy access to 495 HWY. First showing by 15 minutes appointment will be during the group showing Wed 12-01-2021 form 5:00pm to 6:30 pm. Accompany showing. Please don't send buyer alone. Please follow Coid-19 Rules.

Listed by Francisco Cruz of Francisco Cruz Real Estate

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ACT

MLS Number 72923251

• Multi-Family 5+ Family - 5+ Units Side by Side
• Total Parking Spaces22
• Year Built1900
• Bathroom14
• Full Bath14

Take advantage of this Amazing and Rare investment opportunity to own a 14 unit, multi-family property centrally located in Andover's bustling downtown area. This lucrative investment property is situated in a wonderful neighborhood, set on a lovely tree-lined street and boasts a large beautiful yard with plenty of green space. Coin operated washer/dryer machines are conveniently located in the basement and all gas boilers were replaced in 2019. This ideally located property is within walking distance to all of the fabulous shops, restaurants and parks that down-town Andover has to offer. Enjoy Andover's Hiking Trails and Pomp's Pond for seasonal/recreational fun! The Town of Andover offers a terrific school system as well as easy access to the Commuter Rail and Routes 93 and 495.

Listed by Sherri DiBarri of Hancock Realty Group LLC

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MLS Number 72923254

• Multi-Family 3 Family
• Total Parking Spaces4
• Units3
• Year Built1900
• Full Bath3

Location! Location! Location! 3 family potential cash cow or condo conversion (delivered vacant) on quiet popular residential street. Approx 5 minutes to Porter or Davis Squares and 8 minutes to Ball Square and new Green Line T station. Rare oversized garage, great ceiling height in basement, newer roof, vinyl siding, hardwood floors, common area including front and back staircase, Cute back yard and back decks, Many electrical updates including new public panel and 3 new separate 100 amp panels. Group showings only: Monday 29th at 6pm, Tuesday 30th at noon, Wednesday 1st at 6pm, Thursday 2nd.at noon. Saturday and Sunday open houses 12-1:30. Please be on time on group showings. All are welcome!

Listed by Shane Marrion of Benoit Real Estate Group,LLC

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MLS Number 72923125

• Multi-Family 3 Family
• Total Parking Spaces5
• Full Bath4
• Bedrooms9
• Year Built1924

Huge 3 Family property with large 5 room units, hardwood and tile floors, very well maintained building. Great location near Vernon Hill.

Listed by Arleuza Maia of Pablo Maia Realty

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Open House

MLS Number 72923158

• Multi-Family 3 Family
• Next Open House: Sat 12/4 11:00 am. to 1:00 pm.
• Total Parking Spaces6
• Bathroom4
• Full Bath4

Unique opportunity to own 2 separate houses on one lot consisting of a single and a 2-family home, capable of generating about $6000 a month. The 2 family is rented at below market for $2650/m, tenants at will. The vacant single family can be rented for $3168/m (HUD) is deleaded featuring 10 rms, 4 bed rms & 2 full baths & large basement w/laundry connections. 1st flr has living rm, dining rm, renovated eat-in kitchen w/oak cabinets, granite c/tops, recessed lights & tile floor, full bath & 1 bed rm. 2nd flr has 3 bed rms & full bath. 3rd fl has 2 rms. Newer gas heat & replacement windows. Two family has similar flr plans, each with living rm, dining rm, 2 bedrms, all hardwood flrs, full baths. Located near Routes 95/128/93, city cntr, bus stop & schools. Single family can be seen anyday. Offers require pre-approval or proof of funds, due by Tuesday, 12/7, 5 pm. Seller reserves the right to accept any offer before deadline. Open house on 12/4/21 and 12/5/21 between 11:00 am & 1:00 pm.

Listed by Darin Thompson of Stuart St James,Inc.

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ACT

MLS Number 72923172

• Multi-Family 3 Family - 3 Units Up/Down
• Total Parking Spaces8
• Full Bath3
• Year Built1890
• Bathroom3

Great Investment opportunity located within minutes of Polar Park, Kelly Square, and the Canal district shops and restaurants. Come check out this Multi-family house with two 2 bed 1 bath units on the 1st and 2nd floor and a 1bed 1bath unit on the 3rd floor. Spacious driveway parking with a nice enclosed back yard. Newer gas hot water heaters for all three units dating from 2015, 2017, and 2021. Some renovations have already been done and completed including new vinyl plank flooring on the first floor as well as recently replaced electrical wiring throughout. Schedule a private showing today!

Listed by Daniel Piorkowski of Lamacchia Realty,Inc.

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MLS Number 72923174

• Multi-Family 5+ Family - 5+ Units Side by Side
• Total Parking Spaces25
• Full Bath10
• Units10
• Bedrooms13

Take advantage of this Amazing and Rare investment opportunity to own the Lincolnshire, a stunning ten unit, multi-family Victorian mansion in the sought after Phillips Academy area. This fantastic investment property or condo conversion is situated on 2 acres of land in one of the most prestigious neighborhoods in Andover. Marvel at this property's period architectural design details including its beautiful millwork and expansive vaulted foyer which boasts a brick fireplaced seating area complemented by a period tile floor. This spacious home's charm and original character continues throughout the property with beautiful moldings, hardwood floors, high ceilings, elegant chandeliers and ornate fireplaces. It's located within walking distance to all of the fabulous shops, restaurants and parks that down-town Andover has to offer. Enjoy Andover's Hiking Trails and Pomps Pond for seasonal fun! Andover offers a terrific school system and easy access to the Commuter Rail/RTE's 93 and 495.

Listed by Sherri DiBarri of Hancock Realty Group LLC

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MLS Number 72923045

• Multi-Family 5-9 Family
• Half Baths2
• Units5
• Full Bath4
• Bathroom6

6 CAP INVESTMENT ALERT! Here is your opportunity to own 2 attached buildings on 2 separate parcels comprising 4 residential units and 1 commercial unit. 25 Division is a 3 story brick rowhouse containing three (2) bedroom apartments. 23 Division/9-11 Williams is a 2 story, two unit structure containing a residential unit and a tavern/bar. All units are on lease. Total annual income tops $124K! The location is at the gateway from East Boston to Chelsea, and is prime for future development/expansion with potential water views from the property. Call today for a private showing!

Listed by The Residential Group and Jason Manganello of William Raveis R.E. & Home Services

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MLS Number 72923041

• Multi-Family 2 Family - 2 Units Side by Side
• Year Built1900
• Bathroom3
• Full Bath3
• Bedrooms6

Massive attached single-family within minutes to Downtown Boston. The property underwent a full renovation just a few years ago. 10 foot ceiling height on the first floor, multiple pocket doors, extra large windows, quarter sawn oak floors throughout, front and rear staircases, oversized baseboard and moldings. Completely remodeled kitchens with hardwood cabinets and copper countertops. The property includes 12 bedrooms, 4 dens/offices and 12 baths with many en-suite baths and laundry hook up on each floor. Radiant heat throughout the house plus forced hot air, A/C system and a full size staircase that goes to the roof deck. Basement could also be finished, as it has ample ceiling height. 21 Alaska St is currently set up as an airbnb with amazing income and is also for sale at the same price. Pro-forma capitalization rate at asking price is 9.65% and ROI is 18.05%

Listed by Alexander Theocles of HSRE Group

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The property listing data and information, or the Images, set forth herein were provided to MLS Property Information Network, Inc. from third party sources, including sellers, lessors and public records, and were compiled by MLS Property Information Network, Inc. The property listing data and information, and the Images, are for the personal, non-commercial use of consumers having a good faith interest in purchasing or leasing listed properties of the type displayed to them and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties which such consumers may have a good faith interest in purchasing or leasing. MLS Property Information Network, Inc. and its subscribers disclaim any and all representations and warranties as to the accuracy of the property listing data and information, or as to the accuracy of any of the Images, set forth herein.

Real Estate Market Trends in Methuen, MA

Coldwell Banker estimates the median home price in Methuen is $399,900. Right now, there are 89 homes listed for sale in Methuen, including 13 condos and 2 foreclosures. You can research home values, browse Methuen's hottest homes, and see what Coldwell Banker's agents have to say about the local area. Check out our page on Methuen market trends to start exploring!

The property listing data and information, or the Images, set forth herein were provided to MLS Property Information Network, Inc. from third party sources, including sellers, lessors and public records, and were compiled by MLS Property Information Network, Inc. The property listing data and information, and the Images, are for the personal, non-commercial use of consumers having a good faith interest in purchasing or leasing listed properties of the type displayed to them and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties which such consumers may have a good faith interest in purchasing or leasing. MLS Property Information Network, Inc. and its subscribers disclaim any and all representations and warranties as to the accuracy of the property listing data and information, or as to the accuracy of any of the Images, set forth herein.

Housing production is one of the most profound challenges facing Massachusetts, and one in which each city and town has a unique and important role to play. Creating enough homes to accommodate the next generation of workers while also addressing the complex needs of an aging and increasingly diverse population will require cities and towns across the state to implement new plans and policies that usher in a new era of housing production.

The high cost of housing and lack of affordable or attractive options for many households has many negative consequences that affect the whole state. Housing costs are a major contributor to the state’s notoriously high cost of living, and eclipse taxes as a major disincentive to firms and talented mobile homes for sale in raleigh nc by owner thinking of locating here. Paying an excessive amount of income on housing means families have less money to spend on other essentials like food or health care, and spend less money at local businesses. Finally, high housing costs, especially in and near urban areas, have caused many households to search farther afield, “driving until they qualify” in the sprawl frontier past I-495 where large lots, low density, and long commutes cause local environmental damage, increased emissions, and higher transportation costs.

One fundamental solution to the state’s housing challenge is more proactive efforts to plan for increased housing production at the local level. Each city and town has different needs, different constraints, and different opportunities for new growth, but all can play a role in meeting the state’s housing needs. Furthermore, many important principles of housing production apply across the Commonwealth: communities need a diversity of housing types to meet future housing needs; increased production at all price levels is critical to improving affordability; and well-located and well-designed new housing can revitalize local business districts while reducing auto miles travelled.

This report provides an overview of the current demographics of Methuen, the existing housing stock, projected changes in housing demand over the coming decades, and the types of new housing that are needed to meet that need.

The Legal Context for Housing Production Planning

Housing production has been an important goal of the Commonwealth for decades. The Comprehensive Permit Act consists of Massachusetts General Laws (MGL) Chapter 40B, Sections 20 through 23, along with associated regulations issued and administered by the Massachusetts Department of Housing and Community Development (DHCD). It was enacted in 1969 to encourage the production of affordable housing in all the cities and towns of the Commonwealth.

In municipalities that fail to meet their affordable housing obligations under Chapter 40B, a developer can apply for a “Comprehensive Permit” that enables them to build more densely than municipal zoning bylaws would permit, if at least 25% (or 20% in is ups open today on veterans day cases) of the new units are affordable. For purposes of comprehensive permitting, “adequate progress” means that more than 10% of the year-round housing units qualify as affordable in the Subsidized Housing Inventory (see more detail below), or that the municipality has an approved housing production plan and has met annual or biennial housing production targets. In some cases, as-of-right zoning for multi-family or higher-density housing can help demonstrate “adequate progress.” Despite its controversy, Massachusetts voters rejected an initiative petition to repeal the law in November of 2010.

For the purposes of this statute, affordable housing is defined as a unit that could be purchased or rented by a household making up to 80% of the area median income (AMI).

Housing needs and preferences change over time. Young professionals and seniors on fixed incomes may prefer smaller, more affordable units that are easier to maintain. Families with children may want larger units with more bedrooms and open space. This section describes the population of Methuen by age and how it is projected to change.

Methuen is home to 47000 residents, an increase of 6.8 percent from 2000. In 2010, working-age adults between 20 and 65 made up 60 percent of the population and seniors over 65 made up 14 percent School-age children, between 5 and 19, make up 20 percent of current residents. Between 2005 and 2012, school enrollment decreased by 390, or 5.2 percent

The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), the regional planning agency for Metro Boston, has prepared population and housing demand projections for 164 cities and towns in Metropolitan Boston 1and the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute has prepared population projections for the balance of the cities and towns in the state. 2 Both sets of projections include two scenarios: a Status Quo scenario based on continuation of recent trends in migration, housing occupancy, and location preference; and a Stronger Region scenario that assumes increased attraction and retention of young workers and slightly increased preference for urban settings and multi-family housing. The Status Quo scenario found that continuation of current levels of in-migration and housing production would lead to a declining workforce and economic stagnation over the coming decades. In contrast, the increased migration rates of the Stronger Region scenario could fuel job growth of 7% between 2010 and 2040. As a result, MAPC recommends use of the Stronger Region scenario as the basis for housing planning, and the assumptions and outputs of that work have been incorporated into the Commonwealth’s multi-family housing production goal of 10,000 multi-family units per year, and have been adopted by the Massachusetts Department of Transportation as the basis for long-term transportation planning.

With the aging of the Baby Boomers, Massachusetts is growing older. The senior population is expected to increase by 100 percent over the next two decades, an increase mirrored in almost every city and town.

In Methuen, the aging of the Baby Boomers will cause the senior population to increase by 6,500 people, or 100 percent, through 2030, as seen in Figure 1. The total population is projected to increase by 11,000, or 23 percent, over the same period.

Figure 1. Population by Age Group, 2000-2030.

Population

By Race

Massachusetts has grown more diverse since 2000. Between 2000 and 2010, the non-white population increased by 94 percent. Meanwhile, the white, non-Hispanic population decreased by 7.9 percent.

Housing demand is a function not only of population, but also the number and type of households that the population forms. As years pass, some households form, move into the community, or grow larger, while others grow smaller, seek different housing san jose mercury news frys, or move out. Net housing demand is the number of units needed to accommodate additional households and maintain healthy vacancy rates among owner and renter-occupied housing units. 3 This section looks at the current distribution of household types in Methuen, projected household changes, and net housing unit demand through 2030.

Key findings:

• total households in Methuen increased by 5.9 percent between 2000 and 2010, from 17000 to 18000; 4
• average household size increased from 2.62 in 2000 to 2.67 in 2010, and is projected to be 2.46 by 2030;
• family households with children make up 32% of Methuen households;
• single person households and elderly 5 single person households make up 25% and 11% of Methuen households, respectively;
• total households in Methuen are projected to increase by 5,000 through 2030, an increase of 28 percent from 2010;
• householders between 30 and 60 are projected to increase by 1,000, or 9.1 percent;

• as the Baby Boomer generation ages, the number of householders over 60 will increase by 4,500, from 31 percent housing interest rates today 43 percent of the total households in Methuen;
• net housing unit demand will be 2800 through 2020, or 280 annually;
• net housing unit demand for householders currently between the ages of 15 and 35 will be 3000, or 300 annually; and
• over the next ten years, householders currently older than 55 will need 1,700 fewer units than they do todayputting 150 single family houses back onto the market on average each year.

Households

Total Households

Total population and average household size determine the number of households in a community. In Massachusetts overall, and in 96% of Massachusetts municipalities with population growth since 2000, the number of households increased faster than population because of declines in average household size. This trend is expected to continue as seniors make up a salvation army food bank redding ca share of householders and younger householders wait longer multi family homes for sale in methuen ma form families that are smaller on average than their predecessors.

Despite these overall trends, household size did increase in 48 Massachusetts municipalities between 2000 and 2010. Several factors may contribute to this, including “doubling up” in the face of rising housing costs, and concentrations of certain demographic groups with higher fertility rates.

In Methuen, total households increased by 1,000, or 5.9 percent, between 2000 and 2010. At the same time, average household size increased from 2.62 to 2.67.

Households by Age Cohort

Just as aging Baby Boomers (those born between 1945 and 1970, for our purposes) will dominate the overall population dynamics of the state, they will also have a substantial influence on household changes and housing needs in Methuen. As this large generation ages, it will increase the number of householders over 60 by 82 percent statewide through 2030, and their share of all households will increase from 31 to 43 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, the total number of householders under 60 will change only slightly from one decade to the next, and most age groups under 60 will see a decline in the number of households between 2010 and 2030.

In Methuen, householders over 60 will decrease from 31 percent of the population in 2010 to 43 percent in 2030, an increase of 82 percent. Meanwhile, under-60 householders will increase by 1,000, or 8.3 percent, as seen in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Households by Householder Age Cohort, 2010-2030.

Housing Units

Housing Unit Demand Change

Changes in housing unit demand result from household formation, dissolution, and mortality. Young adults currently between the ages of 15 and 30 are poised to form households after they leave home, dorm, or roommates. Thousands are projected to do so each year, and each will need a housing unit, typically multi-family rental units. Meanwhile, older adults have typically already formed households. Combined with mortality, outmigration, or transition to nursing homes and other group quarter situations, this translates to a decline in housing unit demand among householders 55 and over, despite a sharp increase in the number of senior-headed amazon music customer service The decline in demand from older householders will partly offset increased demand from their younger counterparts. In Metro Boston, for example, the decline in demand for single-family homes among householders over 55 and over will accommodate 50 percent of demand for such units from younger americas next top model season 10 episode 1 between 2010 and 2020, and an even greater share in the decade thereafter. However, shifts in preferences among younger households towards multi-family units means that only 15 percent of new multi-family demand will be met through existing units freed up by householder over 55.

Through 2020, new households headed by someone currently under the age of 35 will need an additional 3000 housing units. Households headed by someone currently between the ages of 35 and 55 will demand 1,500 more units. Householders currently over the age of 55 will need 1,700 fewer units than they do today. After accounting for the units freed up by departing seniors and the units needed to maintain a healthy vacancy rate, this translates into net demand for 1600 single family and 1200 multi-family units. Figure 3 breaks projected demand down by householder cohort, unit type, and tenure.

Figure 3. Projected Household Demand by Age Cohort, Unit Type, and Tenure.

Supply

Supply is measured by the number and type of housing units in a municipality. It is the part of the housing market that municipalities can directly control through zoning and other land use policies. In this section, we look at the current supply of housing units in Methuen, as well as its distribution by unit type, building age, size, and cost. We also look at housing permits in Methuen since 2000 and compare it to projected future demand. These numbers can help your municipality to determine what policies are needed to ensure an adequate supply of housing to meet current and future demand.

Housing Units by Age

The distribution of housing units by age is important for at least three reasons. First, a housing stock with few units built since 2000 indicates that housing supply is growing slowly. If demand is expected to remain stable or increase in the future, this may result in upward pressure on housing prices. Second, older housing units can be more expensive to occupy, due to higher heating and maintenance costs. Third, certain federal housing programs, such as Community Development Block Grants, track the percent of housing units by age, and in particular the percent built before 1939.

In Methuen, 25% of housing units are in buildings built before 1939, compared to 25% statewide. Another 18% and 23% of Methuen units are in buildings that date from 1940-1959 and 1960-1979, respectively. Construction since 2000 accounts for 7.1% of units, compared to 9% statewide.

Housing Units by Type

Housing preferences are projected to change, as both younger householders and seniors opt for smaller, multi-family units, as seen above. It is important to compare these projections to the current distribution of units in order to calibrate supply to future demand. In Methuen, 66% of units are in single family homes, compared to 76% statewide and 50% for Regional Urban Center-type municipalities; 16% of all units are in two- to four-family buildings; and 17.3% are in multi-family buildings with five or more units. The remainder are in non-permanent structures, such as mobile homes.

Housing Permits 2000 - 2012

One way to measure whether or not a municipality is on track to meet future demand is to compare recent permitting activity to future projected demand. If annual permitting for single or multi-family housing units is historically lower than projected annual demand, this indicates a need to increase the rate of single or multi-family permitting in the future. 6 From 2000 to 2012, Methuen permitted 98 single family and 15 multi-family housing units annually. By comparison, Methuen faces an annual projected demand of 160 single family units and 120 multi-family units.

Housing prices are determined by the demand for and supply of housing units. If supply does not keep up with demand, higher prices result. Affordability is determined by the distribution of housing prices and household incomes. If prices rise but incomes remain flat - a familiar dynamic in many communities in recent years - affordability declines.

Affordability is measured in several ways. In this section, we natural home remedies for headaches measure affordability according to:

• the percent of households that pay more than 30% and 50% of income on housing costs (“cost burdened” and “severely cost burdened,” respectively), by household tenure, income, and type;
• the percent of housing units listed on the Massachusetts Subsidized Housing Inventory (SHI);
• the percent of recent home sales affordable to low and median income households; and
• the gap between the number of households by income level, and the number of housing units affordable by income level.

Households by Income

Affordability is of particular concern to low income households. Many federal and state housing programs define low income households according to household size and household income, measured as a percent of Area Median Income (AMI). The breakdown for extremely low, very low, and low income households by household size is shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1. Low income households in Methuen by household income and household size.

In Methuen, 14%, 12%, and 14% of households are extremely low, very low, and low income, respectively. This means that 40 percent of all households qualify for federal and state affordable housing programs based on household income.

Housing Cost Burden

The most common measure of housing affordability is the percent of income that households spend on housing costs. According to most federal and state agencies, households that spend more than 30% of income on housing costs are “cost burdened.” Households that spend more than 50% of income on housing are “severely cost burdened.” Areas where more than 30% of households are cost burdened face an affordable housing shortage. In Methuen, 38 percent and 15 percent of households are cost burdened and severely cost burdened, respectively, compared to 29 percent and 14 percent of households statewide.

Cost Burden by Tenure

Cost burden rates are typically higher among renter households. Private party car loan chase, 47% of renter and 31% of owners are cost burdened, respectively. Multi family homes for sale in methuen ma Methuen, 50% of renters are cost burdened, versus 32% of owners.

Cost Burden by Income

As expected, cost burden is also more common among low income households. Statewide, 81% of all extremely low income households, 67% of very low income households, and 49% of low income households are cost burdened, versus 14% of households with incomes above 100% AMI. Figure 4 shows the percent of Methuen households that are cost burdened and severely cost burdened by income level.

Figure 4. Percent of households in Methuen cost burdened by income level.

Cost Burden by Household Type

Younger households, non-family households, and elderly households typically have lower incomes, and are more likely to rent. They are also more likely to to be cost burdened. Statewide, 25% of elderly family households and 52% of non-elderly, non-family households are cost burdened, respectively. As the number of elderly households increases, the number of cost-burdened elderly households is likely to increase. In Methuen, cost burden among elderly family households and non-elderly, non-family households is 25% and 52%, respectively.

Subsidized Housing Inventory

Massachusetts maintains a subsidized housing inventory (SHI) that tracks each municipality’s affordable housing stock, including deed restricted and subsidized units. Under General Law Chapter 40B, in any peoples financial lawrenceville ga where less than 10% of units are included on the SHI, a developer can build more densely than the municipal zoning bylaws would permit, if at least 25% (or 20% in certain cases) of the new units are affordable.

Statewide, 5% of housing units are on the SHI, and 12 percent of municipalities meet their 10% requirement multi family homes for sale in methuen ma Chapter 40B. Figure 5 shows the percent of SHI unit within Methuen and its nearest neighbors.

Figure 5. Percent SHI units for Methuen and nearest neighboring municipalities.

Affordability of Recent Home Sales

Owner-occupied cost burden estimates reflect the housing costs of current owner households, not the prices that aspiring homeowners face in the current housing market. If prices have risen recently, new entrants my find themselves with fewer options of higher risk of cost burden than their counterparts who have been in the area for some time. To estimate how affordable recent sale prices are to low income families, we use 2000 to 2012 sales data from the Massachusetts parcel file Figure 6 shows the percent of single family home sales since 2000 that are affordable by household income.

Note: (If a graph does not appear below, then there is no data on sale price or sale date for Methuen in the Massachusetts parcel data, or the data is in a non-standard format.)

Figure 6. Percent of Single Family Home Sales, Affordable by Household Income (2000-present)

Affordability Gap

Units that are affordable to low income households are not necessarily occupied by low income households. This mismatch between households’ incomes and the units they occupy can exacerbate affordability problems. To measure the extent to which affordability is a supply problem versus a distribution problem, we calculate the affordability gap. The gap is the difference between the number of households at a given income level and the number of units affordable to households at that income level. A positive gap indicates a shortage of units at a given income level, even if households and units were perfectly matched by incomes and costs. Methuen households at less than 50% AMI, 50 to 80% AMI, and above 80% AMI, face affordability gaps of 1600, -610, and -1000, respectively.

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